Central Alberta Weather Forecasts for 2050 and 2080
"What the Alberta fire says about our attitudes toward climate change It is a hot topic these days." ~ June 1, 2016 Globe and Mail
"How Climate Change Is Fueling a Rise in Shark Attacks" June 23, 2016 Time
"Climate change could be factor in Calgary's extremely low mosquito numbers" June 23, 2016 Calgary Herald
"Climate Change Puts Squeeze on Cuddly Koalas" EcoWatch June 24, 2016
Climate Change, Climate Change, Climate change.
It is a hot topic these days. Mainly in news, coverage in government policy and carbon tax initiatives are scorching the headlines.
Most people get the gist of what climate change is, but few know what might actually happen in the future (scientists included). This is because climate change is a HUGE topic which can potentially effect countless things, as seen by the news headlines and so far all we really know is that major changes are on their way.
But I'm not here to preach about the gloominess of climate change. Other sources are out there if you're interested in learning more about it. My goal is to inform about research our area (central Alberta), and translate studies so anyone can understand science.
Image from University of Saskatchewan from google commons showing the South Saskatchewan River Basin which was studied by Glzaw and Gan (2015).
A new study by Gizaw & Gan (2015) found that the South Saskatchewan River Basin (shown in the image above) will receive an increase in precipitation in the future.
Increases in rain are also projected to cause increases in flooding which could have harmful consequences.
Additionally Trenberth et al. (2003) predicted that in the South Saskatchewan River Basin between 2050-2080, there will be less storms; however, the occurrences of more intense storms will increase as temperature rises. And, temperature is expected to rise.
Image from the study from Gizaw & Gan (2015) showing predicted changes in temperature as well as precipitable water change.
When the temperature increases, there is more water in the air. Just think of coastal areas, which is muggier because there is more moisture in the air. Generally, Alberta is a drier province, so the increase in precipitable water (depth of water column in the atmosphere that can be precipitated as rain) can be linked to increased extreme storms.
This study is important because the South Saskatchewan River Basin has a lot of agricultural land, as well as Towns and Cities constructed around main rivers. Flooding could cause crop-loss and could cause decreases in farm-able lands. In addition, I am sure we remember the floods that occurred in the past (such as High River and Calgary), and the psychological and physical suffering people went through because of it. In coming years, more studies will be done, and future predictions should influence decision makers who are responsible for infrastructure construction and future preventative flood-planning in order to mitigate potential damages that may be caused by flooding.
In the meantime, my advice to you would be to ask yourself if you are in threat of a flood. If you are purchasing a home, perhaps a riverfront property is not a wise investment. Although this is only one study, and although these are only predictions, the methodology of this study seems sound. Be aware and be prepared for the worst case scenario. It might just save you hundreds of thousands of dollars on a home or business, and more importantly, it might just save your life.
References:
Allen, M. R., & Ingram, W. J. (2002). Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle. Nature, 419(6903), 224-232. doi:10.1038/nature01092
Gizaw, M. S., & Gan, T. Y. (2015). Possible impact of climate change on future extreme precipitation of the Oldman, Bow and Red Deer River Basins of Alberta. International Journal of Climatology Int. J. Climatol.,36(1), 208-224. doi:10.1002/joc.4338
